Published On: Sat, Oct 20th, 2012

Revival hopes delayed to after the holidays in India, Turkey

Polymer buyers have been largely in a waiting stance in major markets in the midst of a falling trend for most products, as per the pricing service of ChemOrbis. This slowdown has been exacerbated by the upcoming holidays both in India and Turkey. Sellers in these countries have delayed their expectations about a revival in demand to the post holiday period.

Revival hopes delayed to after the holidays in India, Turkey

Revival hopes delayed to after the holidays in India, Turkey

In India, the markets will be closed on October 24 for a public holiday, Dussehra. On the same day, Turkish players will be sidelined from the market as it coincides with the eve of a religious holiday, Eid Al-Adha. The next four days will be followed by a festival, which also bridges with another national holiday on October 29. Some Muslim players are also expected to be out of the market in India next week due to the holiday. Later in November, India will have another long public holiday, Diwali, which is one of biggest festivals in the country. It will start on November 13 and last for five days.

Taking these holidays into account, buyers in both countries are quite reluctant to secure cargoes at the moment. A profile manufacturer in Kalol, India commented, “Demand may pick up only by next month after the Diwali holiday. Next week will be slow, too.” A trader offering Middle Eastern PE cargoes on import basis to India also commented, “Buying interest is almost frozen as everybody is waiting for softer prices. Trading activities will not improve next week either due to the holidays while a full revival of demand will not be seen before the end of the Diwali holiday in mid-November.”

At least two traders more, located in Ahmedabad and Rajkot, also reported weak demand. “Demand is terribly weak and therefore, we are not planning to restock before the Diwali holiday in November. Successive holidays have hampered the buying interest a lot, pushing buyers to the sidelines,” one of them commented. A pipe manufacturer in Maharashtra also commented, “We are interested neither in import offers nor local offers as we have plenty of supplies amid low end product orders. I think this slowdown may prolong until after Diwali holiday. Even if import offers come down to match $950/ton, we may consider buying depending on the state of demand.”

Local prices have been eroding since the beginning of October in India with PP raffia prices losing INR6400-6900/ton ($122-131/ton) and HDPE film prices by INR4000-6000/ton ($76-114/ton). Local PVC prices have also slumped by INR4000-7760/ton ($76-147/ton) while import PVC k67 prices for regular origins have come down by $50/ton on average within the same timeframe.

Similar comments are widely heard in the Turkish market. A pipe manufacturer told ChemOrbis, “Although we have very limited stocks left to work with for the near term, I would like to wait as long as I can. This is because I believe that the more we wait, the more competitive prices we will come across.”

On the sellers’ side, there is a prevalent expectation that trading activities will be better when players return to their desks after the holiday period. “Most buyers have delayed their purchases in anticipation of further decreases. There must be some demand following the end of the holiday from these buyers,” comment several traders.

In Turkey, import PP prices have recorded a $45/ton decrease on average while PVC k67 has fallen by $65/ton and HDPE film by $25/ton on average since the beginning of October, according to ChemOrbis Price Index. In the local markets, PP and PVC have seen decreases of up to $40-50/ton on average in the last three weeks while average LDPE prices have lost more than $80/ton.